Especially in December 2022, the domestic market share of lithium iron phosphate battery reached a record high in a single month, with a monthly loading of 24.7 GWh and a market share of 68.3%, and more than 60% for five consecutive months.

With the release of power battery loading data in 2022, the accelerated transformation of the industry has become the general trend.

Recently, the latest statistical data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance showed that in 2022, the domestic power battery load was 294.6GWh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 90.7%. Among them, the cumulative load of lithium iron phosphate battery was 183.8GWh, accounting for 62.4% of the total load, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 130.2%.

"There is still room for further improvement in the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the future," said Li Jin, director of battery research and development department of GAC Aian R&D Center, pointing out the trend of changes in the field of power batteries.

Rapid growth of lithium iron phosphate

From the data of loading volume, in terms of the composition of loading volume in 2022, the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries is 110.4 GWh, accounting for 37.5% of the total loading volume, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 48.6%.

In the domestic power battery market, lithium iron phosphate and ternary battery are the two most mainstream technology routes at present. During the period from 2018 to 2020, the load of lithium iron phosphate batteries in China was lower than that of ternary batteries. In July 2021, lithium iron phosphate battery surpassed ternary battery with 51.3% market share, and has been leading since then.

Especially in December 2022, the domestic market share of lithium iron phosphate battery reached a record high in a single month, with a monthly loading of 24.7 GWh and a market share of 68.3%, and more than 60% for five consecutive months.

"The substantial increase in the load of lithium iron phosphate battery is determined by its good characteristics. At this stage, lithium iron phosphate battery has more advantages than ternary battery, and some of the previous technical shortcomings have been basically completed." Xu Xingwu, vice president of Guoxuan High-tech Engineering Research Institute, told China Auto News that lithium iron phosphate battery has better high temperature performance and can withstand 350 ° C to 500 ° C high temperature, However, the material of ternary lithium battery is only about 200 ° C, with better safety performance; Previously, the short board of lithium iron phosphate battery was low energy density, but now there has been a new breakthrough. The maximum energy density of single lithium iron phosphate battery produced by Guoxuan Hi-Tech has exceeded 190Wh/kg, and the lithium iron phosphate system can continue to improve the energy density. The single energy density will reach 200Wh/kg, which is not different from the ternary battery. Because it can solve users‘ safety anxiety and other problems, more and more automobile enterprises choose lithium iron phosphate battery under the current situation.

"In fact, the opportunity for the growth of the number of lithium iron phosphate batteries on the market also comes from the growth of the overall sales of new energy vehicles, It was formed under the two-wheel drive of policy and market. The growth of vehicle sales will inevitably bring growth to the essential power battery. With the continuous optimization of lithium iron phosphate battery technology, the energy density is improved, and the advantages of long life are prominent. At this stage, the solid state, sodium ion and other batteries have not yet formed large-scale applications, and lithium iron phosphate battery has taken the market lead.

The opportunity to sail independently comes

According to the data, in 2022, China‘s power battery enterprises exported 68.1 GWh of batteries, including 46.9 GWh of ternary batteries, accounting for 68.9% of the total exports; The cumulative export of lithium iron phosphate battery was 20.9GWh, accounting for 30.7% of the total export.

In 2022, as new energy vehicles accelerate to sea, the power battery also ushers in a period of opportunity to sea. In that year, many domestic power battery manufacturers continued to expand production at home and abroad, and established affiliated subsidiaries to seek cooperation with upstream lithium enterprises.

It is reported that in 2022, BYD‘s Changchun, Nanning and Xiangyang bases, Honeycomb Energy‘s Shangrao and Yancheng bases, China Innovation Airlines‘ Meishan and Wuhan bases, and Lishen‘s Wuxi, Chuzhou and Tianjin bases will start construction in a short time. In addition, the pace of joint venture factories of automobile enterprises, main engine factories and battery enterprises is also accelerating, and the construction of joint venture factories of BYD and FAW, Qingshan Industrial and SAIC has been started.

From the perspective of the pace of relevant domestic enterprises going to sea, accelerating the sea has become a new trend. Among them, Vision Power North America‘s third factory plans to land and supply cylindrical batteries for BMW Group; Yiwei Lithium plans to invest in battery projects in Hungary and Malaysia. The U.S. subsidiary of Guoxuan Hi-Tech will spend $2.364 billion (about 16.8 billion yuan) to build a power battery material factory in Big Rapids, Michigan, USA. Moreover, in July 2022, the first overseas factory of Guoxuan Hi-Tech has been settled in Gottingen, Germany.

"There are many factors in the acceleration of domestic power battery going to sea." Lu Ancheng, a researcher of Zhejiang New Energy Technology Application Research Institute, analyzed to the reporter of China Auto News. First, because the technology, capacity and quality level of domestic power battery enterprises, especially many leading enterprises, have been rapidly improved, which is not inferior to the products of foreign battery manufacturers, and even has formed a leading advantage in some technologies, Going to sea is also the need to release production capacity; Second, a large number of overseas vehicle customer orders have been signed, which also adds confidence for domestic power battery enterprises to go abroad; Third, with the global trend of new energy vehicles and the situation of sustained and substantial growth, domestic power battery enterprises have a historic opportunity to go to sea. "Although the Inflation Reduction Act of the United States may have some impact on the power battery going to sea, it cannot change the general trend of development," he said.

Still need to be alert to market risks

The data shows that in 2022, the cumulative output of power battery in China is 545.9GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 148.5%, but the inventory is still close to 251.3GWh. At the same time, the forecast shows that the published capacity planning of power battery in China has reached 480 billion watt-hours, but it is estimated that the demand for power battery in China‘s new energy vehicle market will be about 100 billion watt-hours to 120 billion watt-hours by 2025. This has raised concerns about overcapacity in the industry.

"Whether the domestic power battery industry has overcapacity or not depends on the data, which does not reflect the real and comprehensive situation." Lu Ancheng said that it is more reliable to look at the actual data under construction and production. On the whole, the power battery industry is still in the expansion period. Therefore, it is difficult to accurately determine whether the industry has overcapacity risk.

There are also different views on this. "The power battery overcapacity is likely to reappear." Peng Songlin, an analyst at Huatai Securities, told the China Auto News that in recent years, domestic power battery enterprises have been significantly expanding production, and the new capacity may be released from 2023, and it is likely to have overcapacity in the next few years. If there is surplus, it also means that the power battery industry will have a reshuffle period. To this end, relevant enterprises should scientifically evaluate the market and their own strength, and must not blindly expand production as in previous years.

"The market is the soil and foundation for the survival of the power battery industry. We must keep up with the market rhythm to resolve market risks." Yu Dongsheng believes that, on the one hand, as a power battery enterprise, we must pay attention to market trends and industry development trends, constantly improve our level in key links such as research and development investment, technical innovation, quality assurance, and focus on the forefront of the market. On the other hand, in order to take the road of high-quality development, relevant enterprises must optimize the allocation of resource elements to avoid homogeneous and vicious competition; We should constantly improve our market competitiveness and have the ability to resist risks; We should make full use of the development opportunities at sea and open up new markets. "In short, only by continuously improving its own strength can it gain a firm foothold in the market competition and achieve sustainable development," he stressed.

Source: China Auto News   Author: Zhao Jianguo